Assured Guaranty Stock Performance

AGO Stock  USD 85.65  2.10  2.39%   
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.31, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Assured Guaranty's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Assured Guaranty is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Assured Guaranty has a negative expected return of -0.0274%. Please make sure to confirm Assured Guaranty's downside variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis , to decide if Assured Guaranty performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Assured Guaranty has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of very healthy technical and fundamental indicators, Assured Guaranty is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disarray, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(0.01)
Five Day Return
3.24
Year To Date Return
(1.12)
Ten Year Return
287.25
All Time Return
387.5
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0155
Payout Ratio
0.2012
Forward Dividend Rate
1.36
Dividend Date
2025-12-03
Ex Dividend Date
2025-11-19
1
Assured Guaranty Ltd. AGO Stake Increased by Franklin Resources Inc. - MarketBeat
11/28/2025
 
Assured Guaranty dividend paid on 3rd of December 2025
12/03/2025
2
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12/10/2025
3
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12/19/2025
4
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12/30/2025
5
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01/06/2026
6
Assessing Assured Guaranty Valuation After Mixed Multi Year Shareholder Returns
01/12/2026
7
The Truth About Assured Guaranty Ltd Why Quiet Money Is Suddenly Watching AGO - AD HOC NEWS
01/23/2026
8
Insider Selling Assured Guaranty Major Shareholder Sells 65,282.22 in Stock
01/30/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow286 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities780 M

Assured Guaranty Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  8,742  in Assured Guaranty on November 11, 2025 and sell it today you would lose (177.00) from holding Assured Guaranty or give up 2.02% of portfolio value over 90 days. Assured Guaranty is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.0669% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 9% of stocks are less volatile than Assured, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Assured Guaranty is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 1.33 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.03 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.09 per unit of volatility.

Assured Guaranty Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Assured Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 85.65 90 days 85.65 
about 76.97
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Assured Guaranty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.97 (This Assured Guaranty probability density function shows the probability of Assured Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Assured Guaranty has a beta of 0.31. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Assured Guaranty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Assured Guaranty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Assured Guaranty has an alpha of 0.0938, implying that it can generate a 0.0938 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Assured Guaranty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Assured Guaranty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assured Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
84.6185.6386.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
77.0796.8197.83
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
97.37107.00118.77
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.711.811.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Assured Guaranty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Assured Guaranty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Assured Guaranty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Assured Guaranty.

Assured Guaranty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Assured Guaranty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Assured Guaranty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Assured Guaranty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Assured Guaranty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.09
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.31
σ
Overall volatility
2.86
Ir
Information ratio 0.03

Assured Guaranty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Assured Guaranty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Assured Guaranty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Assured Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Assured Guaranty has 1.7 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Nevertheless, prudent borrowing could serve as an effective mechanism for Assured to finance growth opportunities yielding strong returns.
Over 96.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Insider Selling Assured Guaranty Major Shareholder Sells 65,282.22 in Stock

Assured Guaranty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Assured Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding54.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.5 B

Assured Guaranty Fundamentals Growth

Assured Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Assured Guaranty, and Assured Guaranty fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Assured Stock performance.

About Assured Guaranty Performance

By examining Assured Guaranty's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Assured Guaranty's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Assured Guaranty is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand-40.9 K-38.9 K
Return On Tangible Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Capital Employed 0.05  0.05 
Return On Assets 0.04  0.04 
Return On Equity 0.06  0.07 

Things to note about Assured Guaranty performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Assured Guaranty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Assured Guaranty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Assured Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Assured Guaranty has 1.7 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Nevertheless, prudent borrowing could serve as an effective mechanism for Assured to finance growth opportunities yielding strong returns.
Over 96.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Insider Selling Assured Guaranty Major Shareholder Sells 65,282.22 in Stock
Evaluating Assured Guaranty's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Assured Guaranty's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Assured Guaranty's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Assured Guaranty's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Assured Guaranty's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Assured Guaranty's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Assured Guaranty's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Assured Guaranty's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Assured Guaranty's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Assured Guaranty's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Assured Guaranty's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Assured Guaranty offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Assured Guaranty's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Assured Guaranty Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Assured Guaranty Stock:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Assured Guaranty. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price.
To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.
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Will Property & Casualty Insurance sector continue expanding? Could Assured diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Assured Guaranty data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.31)
Dividend Share
1.33
Earnings Share
8.16
Revenue Per Share
18.469
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.104
Investors evaluate Assured Guaranty using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Assured Guaranty's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Assured Guaranty's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Assured Guaranty's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Assured Guaranty represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Assured Guaranty's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.